RAFAEL NADAL’S quest to win the ATP Finals for the first time are out of his hands – even if he beats Stefanos Tsitsipas in his final group game.
The Spaniard, 33, lost his first match of the tournament to defending champion Alexander Zverev on Monday night.
And he looked set to be defeated in his second, too, as he faced match point at 5-1 down in the deciding set to Daniil Medvedev on Wednesday.
But Nadal fought back in stunning, trademark, never-say-die fashion to claim an astounding victory and give his chances of winning this season-ending title for the first time – and finishing the year as the world No1 – a major boost.
That result, coupled with Tsitsipas’ comfortable win over Zverev, means no one has been knocked out just yet.
Tsitsipas is definitely through.
But Nadal, Medvedev and Zverev all have the chance to join him in Saturday’s semi-finals.
In the final round of group matches, Tsitsipas takes on Nadal in the afternoon session before Zverev and Medvedev face off in the evening.
THE PERMUTATIONS
Here’s what must happen for each player…
For Nadal to go through, it is relatively straightforward.
He must beat Tsitsipas and then hope Medvedev beats Zverev. Nadal would then top the group.
For Medvedev to progress, he needs Tsitsipas to do him a favour by beating Nadal and the Russian must win in straight sets.
That would see Tsitsipas top the group and Medvedev come second.
Finally, for Zverev to advance to the final four, it is in his hands: he simply must win.
If he does, Tsitsipas will top the group and the German will come second.
Got all that?
The winner of the group will face the winner of the clash between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, who will finish second in their group.
That means if Nadal does get through, he will certainly face one of his huge rivals for a place in the final.
And the runner-up will be pitched against Dominic Thiem, who finished on top thanks to wins over Federer and Djokovic.
Now, Nadal came into the tournament as the world No1 and will be desperate to end the year ahead of rival Djokovic.
The permutations for that are now rather simple.
Rafa finishes No1 if he reaches the final OR Djokovic does not win the title.
However, Djokovic claims the honour if he wins the title AND Nadal does not reach the final.
