SINCE a certain match in 1966, England have faced the Germans four times in the knockout stages of a major tournament — and been defeated every time.
So while this may not be a vintage German team, and while England are eight places higher than their old foes in the Fifa rankings, there was a sense of national dread when Joachim Low’s men were confirmed as England’s last-16 opponents.
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If England play the match, rather than the occasion of a great historic rivalry, those rankings suggest Gareth Southgate’s men should win.
But England played the occasion rather than the match in their God-awful goalless draw against Scotland last Friday, so they must learn from that experience.
Because, as it is Germany, we are gripped by a fear of history repeating itself.
As defending world champions in Mexico in 1970, England tossed away a 2-0 lead to lose to West Germany in the quarter-finals — Gordon Banks suffering food poisoning and Peter Bonetti having a stinker in goal.
Then, those two penalty shootout defeats which abruptly halted the oh-so-nearly golden summers of Italia 90 and Euro 96.
England had played very well in both 1-1 draws, only for Stuart Pearce, Chris Waddle and Southgate to be cast as the fall guys, Germany scoring ten spot-kicks out of ten past Peter Shilton and David Seaman.
Most recently, Fabio Capello’s England were hammered 4-1 by Low’s Germany in Bloemfontein at the 2010 World Cup — at the same last-16 stage as next Tuesday’s Wembley meeting.
You may recall the Frank Lampard ‘ghost goal’ which crashed against the underside of the bar and fell way over the line, only to be missed by a myopic Uruguayan linesman.
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That would have made it 2-2 just before half-time.
Yet England were played off the park for the vast majority of that match — a young Mesut Ozil instrumental in a performance that exposed the rigid stodginess of England’s 4-4-2 formation.
There has been one English win at a tournament since 1966 — a 1-0 group-stage victory at Euro 2000, where both teams were eliminated before the knockout stages.
Although, later that year, the Germans won the final international match at the old Wembley in a World Cup qualifier, forcing manager Kevin Keegan to quit in the toilets.
The Germans rebooted their entire national football strategy after 2000.
While the English appointed Sven-Goran Eriksson and headed down the Posh and Becks WAGs circus approach instead.
During Eriksson’s honeymoon period in 2001, the Swede presided over England’s second-greatest victory over the Germans — an astonishing World Cup qualifying victory in Munich — ‘Five-one, even Heskey scored!’
And yet Germany reached the final of that World Cup, while England went home at the quarter-final stage, as they always did under Eriksson.
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There have been two more English wins on German soil this century — most memorably a comeback from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in Berlin under Roy Hodgson in the build-up to Euro 2016. But we all know how that tournament ended for the Three Lions.
Still, this time could be different. England have conceded just one goal in nine games and the Germans went into this tournament in some disarray.
Low announced the Euros would be the end of his 15-year reign and the team is certainly in transition.
Germany were beaten at home by North Macedonia in a World Cup qualifier in March and had been handed a 6-0 gubbing by Spain in the Nations League last autumn.
Yet there is an old adage that the Germans always get their act together at a tournament — often, but not always, true as they were eliminated in the group stages of the last World Cup.
And after a narrow 1-0 defeat by France in their Euros opener, an impressive 4-2 victory over reigning champions Portugal hinted that there could yet be a glorious last hurrah for Low.
The Germans boast three Chelsea Champions League winners in Kai Havertz, who scored the winner against Manchester City in Porto, Timo Werner and that teak-tough defender, Antonio Rudiger.
Old hands such as Manuel Neuer, Mats Hummels, Real Madrid midfielder Toni Kroos and the restored Thomas Muller — all veterans of the 2014 World Cup triumph — will give them the edge over England in terms of big-match experience.
But, for once, England will not head into this grudge match as underdogs.
They will have home advantage, a higher ranking, a meaner defence and the most potent striker on the pitch in Harry Kane.
The Germans certainly have recent footballing history on their side.
But next Tuesday teatime, as a nation skives off work early, Southgate’s men need to swallow the words of Henry Ford — ‘history is more or less bunk’.
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