EVERY year there are ‘good things’ aplenty that come up short on the big stage.
Punters can be sucked in by the hype, but at short-prices these three favourites may be worth opposing come the day.
1. Champ – RSA (3-1)
At the beginning of the season I would never have imagined I’d be keen to take on Nicky Henderson’s potential star.
He achieved plenty over hurdles last season when still raw and a big baby. And as he entered his novice chasing campaign he’d calmed down plenty and seemingly grown up.
His engine is there for all to be seen, and has probably got him out of trouble already once or twice this season.
That’s down to his jumping and it all went Pete Tong in the Dipper Chase last time out when he fell two out.
It had been far from plain sailing before that run too, with patchy leaps thrown in both times at Newbury.
You can forgive them early on, but in three runs he still looks far from a natural and in a hot-looking RSA you just have to look elsewhere. The talent is there, and he’d be a huge player anywhere over hurdles, but for now he wouldn’t be for me.
The Irish have a strong hand in Minella Indo, Allaho and Battleoverdoyen – with the potential for Faugheen to come into the equation as well.
But it is Colin Tizzard’s COPPERHEAD who has me excited. And with odds of 7-1 still widely available, he’d be the bet for me at this stage with connections admitting that’s the likely route they’ll take with him.
2. Shishkin – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (5-2)
This is the horse I take on with the most amount of fear, but that’s the territory with these exciting novices.
There’s no doubting the talent and speed this horse possesses and it’s no vendetta against the great Nicky Henderson that this is the second horse of his in this column.
But the Supreme is just not a race I like as a punter and certainly not taking horses at short prices in it.
Favourites have a particularly poor record in the race, with only the monsters of Douvan and Vautour winning in the last ten years.
The master of Seven Barrows may have won the race three times – with Altior the last victor in 2016. But you have to go back to 1992 to find a winner before that.
However, a stat picked up on a brilliant guide by Festivaltrends.co.uk could be most striking of all, depending on your viewpoint.
Not one horse, not one single horse out of 128 has ever won at the Festival after having their prep run at Huntingdon. Make of that what you will.
Nine of the last ten winners have also contested a Graded race on their previous run. Shishkin could have easily run in a Graded race, but he didn’t. Again, stats can be misleading, but it does highlight his lack of experience, especially in hot races.
It’s the horse in the same colours that makes more appeal, ASTERION FORLONGE.
Trainer Willie Mullins has a great record in the Supreme and his chance seemingly lays solely in this horse. His form has worked out very well and he looks a real beast to go to war with down the line.
3. Carefully Selected – National Hunt Chase (11-4)
So after taking on Nicky Henderson, I’m now taking on Willie Mullins. Asking for trouble you may say.
But I just cannot have the jolly in the National Hunt Chase and am instead all over Gordon Elliott’s CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC, who admitedly isn’t much of a better price.
Carefully Selected only just qualified for this race last time out, it really was last chance saloon.
On paper it looks as if he won the Grade 3 Novice Chase at Naas with ease but it was far, very far from a sight to behold. And certainly not a performance you’d expect from a Festival favourite.
He nearly came down three from home and his jumping was very sketchy throughout.
Of course he would have had plenty of schooling since and will have the services of a very able jockey in a race where that can’t be said for the entire field. That makes a huge difference.
But at the prices I cannot forgive that run and the alternative is more attractive.
Champagne Classic ran Battleoverdoyen close last time and shaped like a horse that needs a trip. He’ll get that here and his run previous to that was the one that really catches the eye.
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