THE EPSOM Derby and Oaks are nearly upon us – and the markets have been proving especially volatile.
It is notoriously difficult to figure out which three-year-old colt or filly will come out on top at the famous track.
Will Dettori be doing a flying dismount after victory at Epsom this Cazoo Festival?
But luckily for you the folks at MyRacing have crunched the numbers and gone through recent history to suss out the key trends.
The results have thrown up a 16-1 shot for the Derby and whopping 50-1 chance for the Oaks.
Epsom Derby key trends
Six of the last 10 winners ran twice earlier in the season before lining up at Epsom.
Aidan O’Brien (three) and Charlie Appleby (two) have won the last five renewals.
Only three favourites have won in the last 10 years, the last of them being Golden Horn in 2015.
Six of the last 10 winners won on their most recent start before The Derby.
The last five winners of The Derby have been priced at 16-1, 25-1, 13-2, 16-1 and 40-1.
Seven of the last 10 winners contested their most recent start before The Derby over 1m1f or further.
Epsom Derby tip
STAR OF INDIA looks worth a second look if the trends are anything to go by.
The Galileo colt has already had two wins this season, winning the most recent of them at Chester.
He’s also an appealing double-figure price at the time of writing and scored over 1m2f last time out in preparation for the big race.
The Dee Stakes winner is handled by Aidan O’Brien, who is aiming for his seventh winner in the last 11 renewals.
Star Of India to win the Epsom Derby at 12-1 with Paddy Power
Epsom Derby three past winners and trends
2021 – Adayar
Trainer- Charlie Appleby
Jockey- Adam Kirby
Odds – 16-1
2021 form before the Derby:
Second – Sandown, Classic Trial (Group 3, 1m2f)- 8-1
Second – Lingfield, Derby Trial (Listed, 1m3½f)- 6-5f
2020 – Serpentine
Trainer – Aidan O’Brien
Jockey – Emmet McNamara
Odds – 25-1
2020 form before the Derby:
Fifth – Curragh, Maiden (1m2f)- 10-3f
First – Curragh, Maiden (1m2f)- 5-2f
2019 – Anthony Van Dyck
Trainer – Aidan O’Brien
Jockey – Seamie Heffernan
Odds – 13-2
2019 form before the Derby
First- Lingfield, Derby Trial (Listed, 1m3½f)- 2-1f
Epsom Oaks key trends
Seven of the last 10 winners had just one start in their season leading up to the Oaks.
Of those seven, it’s worth noting that five of them won on their only start before embarking on the journey to Epsom.
Nine of the last 10 winners have been trained by either Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden.
Five of the last six winners have been ridden by either Frankie Dettori or Ryan Moore.
Only two favourites have won the Oaks in the last 10 years- both were trained by Aidan O’Brien (Minding, 2016 and Love, 2020).
Seven of the last 10 winners had previously contested a race over a distance of 1m2f or greater.
Eight of the last 10 winners have won The Oaks at SP 5-1 or greater.
Epsom Oaks tip
Given the statistics above, THE ALGARVE makes plenty of appeal.
She’s had just one start this season (admittedly finishing fourth), is trained by Aidan O’Brien, and isn’t likely to go off favourite.
The three-year-old raced over 10 furlongs last time and also fits the ‘outsider’ stats.
The Algarve to win the Oaks at 50-1 with Paddy Power
Epsom Oaks three past winners and trends
2021- Snowfall
Trainer – Aidan O’Brien
Jockey – Frankie Dettori
Odds – 11-2
2021 form before the Oaks:
First- York, Musidora Stakes (Group 3- 1m2f)- 14-1
2020 – Love
Trainer – Aidan O’Brien
Jockey – Ryan Moore
Odds – 11-10f
2020 form before the Oaks:
First – Newmarket, 1000 Guineas (Group 1, 1m)- 4-1
2019 – Anapurna
Trainer – John Gosden
Jockey – Frankie Dettori
Odds – 8-1
2019 form before the Oaks:
First – Lingfield, Oaks Trial (Listed, 1m3½f)- 7/4f
