THE first thing multi-millionaire horse racing punter David Walsh will tell you about betting goes against all sense.
Stop trying to pick winners.
Walsh, an eccentric numbers genius who opened a ‘museum of sex and death’ which visitors get to in a high-speed camouflaged ferry, bashed bookies by exploiting differences in odds.
A close associate of The Joker, the punting giant the two set up – called the Bank Roll – is said to have turned over a billion quid a year in its prime.
Individually, the duo have made hundreds of millions each, all through their crack methods.
But passing on advice to wannabes, Walsh, 60, explained the difference in mentality between himself and the average punter.
Stop trying to pick winners.
It’s a weird concept in a sport where the only way to make money is guessing right.
But Walsh – nicknamed the Tasmanian Devil – says the real crux of successful punting lies in the odds, and finding the ones that don’t match up.
The Australian punter, who won £9.2m on the 2009 Melbourne Cup, said: “You don’t need to forecast the outcome. A lot of people aren’t aware of this. What you need to do is simply get odds that are better than the public odds.
“I use a die analogy quite often…it doesn’t matter what number you bet on, if you can get 10-1 and it’s a fair die you’ll make money.
“If you get 4-1 you won’t make money. Every economist knows that but it isn’t universally known and it probably should be.”
What’s more, he believes luck is a massive part of punting – and life in general.
The reason Roger Federer is so good at tennis? A load of talent and dedication, sure, but also some luck.
The reason Walsh made millions? Brains, yes, but also lady luck.
He told the Good Life podcast: “Success is only slightly correlated with talent.
“There were a lot of people including me who made really bad business decisions early on and got lucky.
“I over-estimated my edge and there was about a 20 per cent chance of succeeding with my horse racing gambling.
“That’s not a good position to be in.
“There were a lot of other people like me that were just as talented at gambling and figured out the same strategies as me and made the same mistakes as me, but they got wiped out and I didn’t.”
If it all seems a bit precarious, that’s because it is.
Walsh wasn’t a winner starting out, spending loads of time in a casino across the road from his university in Hobart.
But it was in those houses of luck he and The Joker – aka Zeljko Ranogajec – formed their friendship, and started focusing on racing.
It paid off, both being made for life with their profits.
But whereas Ranogajec splurged his cash on a Lamborghini and a flat in the world’s most expensive apartment block, Walsh went big on his ‘adult Disneyland’, opened in January 2011.
He is estimated to have spent more than £80m on his Museum of Old and New Art, which is all underground.
He bought the property because he saw that was ‘where the rich f***ers live’ – and also because he wanted to make a difference.
In betting, Walsh says, money just changes hands, there is nothing more to it.
Walsh created the museum because, he says, he felt guilty about winning so much money ‘without making a mark’.
Funny then that, despite being showered with critical acclaim for its x-rated exhibitions, Walsh says the gallery loses money.
Well, you can’t win ’em all.
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Remember to gamble responsibly
A responsible gambler is someone who:
- Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
- Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
- Never chases their losses
- Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed
- Gamcare – www.gamcare.org.uk
- Gamble Aware – www.begambleaware.org
